Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 891.330527 1017.199419 1160.950334 1338.687252 1554.506747 1810.637357 2.141490e+03
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 723.028636 885.776195 1090.723748 1373.373491 1762.346447 2293.553860 3.101566e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 616.647069 786.804020 1013.700101 1348.220175 1847.017430 2596.107455 3.878639e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 555.257321 732.582169 980.606716 1367.886365 1988.099811 3005.444950 4.961640e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 512.463188 695.638054 962.606600 1401.161764 2150.726479 3487.473520 6.374276e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 470.138187 652.850192 928.135198 1399.679474 2251.342008 3885.884343 7.815861e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 428.426309 605.673055 879.865404 1365.713320 2284.204715 4160.987804 9.128021e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 403.331185 580.975517 863.539716 1382.732778 2414.605303 4677.557333 1.138752e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 370.904044 541.370444 817.931979 1339.568680 2415.117292 4903.311928 1.297569e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 344.733413 509.453733 781.731713 1308.299052 2433.494611 5178.679012 1.495602e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 321.244898 479.951022 746.656761 1274.114473 2438.355786 5422.567991 1.705645e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 313.479047 475.924226 755.667224 1327.771158 2654.633599 6329.841276 2.297296e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 299.943894 462.551836 749.375426 1355.901906 2835.412184 7283.161589 3.115901e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 287.881405 450.968978 745.700349 1390.712291 3049.771454 8503.528057 4.432474e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 270.181303 427.696827 717.034014 1365.211262 3094.947942 9158.173284 5.575873e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 259.278677 415.732400 708.940999 1385.196323 3276.216101 10487.349277 7.984797e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 250.750595 407.341623 706.903552 1419.037016 3511.697875 12269.635570 1.233479e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 239.574697 393.084268 691.423594 1417.529213 3636.870844 13664.045261 1.779011e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 226.417850 374.125497 664.426857 1382.988334 3643.094529 14457.961699 2.334706e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 218.823189 365.288257 657.883981 1400.295200 3837.414993 16578.518849 3.900784e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 206.830307 347.113489 629.766392 1356.404492 3797.071570 17196.604069 5.126137e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 196.714183 332.025874 607.177207 1324.613314 3795.482460 18123.219465 7.251126e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 187.118055 317.420654 584.544055 1289.863300 3774.250394 18922.810745 1.026721e+06